How bad is the housing market in your area?

[mr tibbs]

Around me there are old and new houses for sale EVERYWHERE!! Hell most of the new houses for sale are not even completed. Is it like this all over the country? Since my new business, and the house flipping me and the old man are doing on the side both involve the housing business I'm dying right now. I'm still getting paid, and we have enough money to weather this storm, but I'm not the type to just sit around. I'm going nuts!! Does anyone see this getting better any time soon??

[stipud]

Maybe I should move down there. Houses here are inflating in cost like mad. Calgary now has the highest residential prices and cost of living in the entire country. This all due to a workers shortage and the associated boom that came with it.

Most people who can afford it have bought a second house as an investment, driving the market even further up. Not only are housing costs bad... rent has skyrocketed as well, by at least 200%.

All this to live in a -40 degree hellhole, just to make a couple bucks.

[eyesofra]

wish i was there in the us, the housing here in Canberra is a killer too ....
used to be cheap here its seems, but after the "great fire" in 2003 that damaged many suburbs , the housing market just boomed from somewhere in bottom to second in the list of most expensive housing market in Australia. The rent is going up by the days man.
me and wife thought we should just get our own home...
but then a decent house with 3-4 bedrooms is like AUD500,000 the cheapest . miss it back at home , for RM500,000 we can get a house of the same size but build solidly with brick unlike those build with boards for walls here.....
but we're really hoping we'll be able to get a house by next year before it hikes up even more to like AUD600,000 ...

[joyride]

It has been bad around me for ages. I was pretty much living at the epicenter when it all began a few years ago (metro Detroit). As the auto companies failed, all the execs that lived in the surrounding areas started dropping like flies, and houses were foreclosing everywhere. In Bloomfield Hills, houses that used to sell for 500k were going for 170k. I once saw on ABC news that they were having auctions where 120K homes were selling for 25,000 closer to Detroit. One in about every 5 houses in my neighborhood is for sale, with several foreclosed on. Really looks bad when gutters start falling off houses and the grass is a foot tall.

At the other side of the state it doesnt seem all that bad though. The Grand Rapids area seems to be doing decently well, although I will let Eric comment on that. He definately got out of Detroit at the right time.

[gridracer]

crappy small houses here that are worth $30,000 10 years ago are now selling for $85,000 there is so much demand for housing here they can't build them fast enough. The city just opened up a new development of 40 lots last week they sold them all in an hour. So much work around here its insane.

[Eric D]

I am not so certain the issues stem from a weak economy as far as the problems with the US housing market are concerned.

I think dumb people and dumb banks are more to blame. For example, when I went to buy my house, the bank approved me for a loan so big I made just enough money in a month to pay the home loan. That did not include bills, like gas, electric, food, etc. The banks were very willing to put me into a loan which would have bankrupted me.

Instead I chose a home more within my means. My monthly house payment is just under a week and a half worth of work. Even this is a bit risky IMO. I would have preferred a monthly payment equivalent to one weeks pay. This way I could have one week to make the house payment, another week to make a double payment on the house, one more week for bills, and the last week for savings. With the way I went (1.5 weeks), I am left with one week to juggle bills and savings, but things still seem to be working, and my savings is still growing, although at a very slow pace.

[fuzzysnuggleduck]

Median house cost in Vancouver is ~$450,000 right now. Median income is $58,000.

13th most unaffordable city in the world.

Buy hey, Tom. You can move to Winnipeg. It's like the second most affordable city in the world

[VW337]

Pork-land is ~$183 per square foot.

My contractor had to move into a $1,000,000 home he built and rent out his old house because he couldn't sell the place at 75% of appraisal.

It is not just SLC that is F'd up.

The common consumers trow-away mind set has merged into the housing market now. Many consumers want state of the art options which are being built into the new homes. Technology demands are making these options high demand and pre-wiring is cheaper than retro-wiring. Many consumers have not a clue how to do this themselves so it is cheaper to move. this all creates the building boom and leaves many homes vacant. Add to that the fuqtard loan which the banks have blindsided buyers with, here you go take your monthly payment is $X a month, and 5 years later they get hit with another $x a month because the prior 5 years was interest only payments and now they need to pay on principal as well.....and here goes another string of bankruptcies and foreclosures....whoops were did the banks money go with that house, oops another lending institute has locked its doors for the last time.

[OldSchoolFool]

There will be and always is demand for housing. Throw in 4.something percent unemployment, AND 5% loans, and lots of people can afford one.

As long as people are working, the current "problems" are just media smoke and mirrors- trying to get a socialist-populist elected. For every house that gets price reduced there's someone to scoop it up.

In Portland there is an average of 2 months to sell a house. That is good by historical standards- and yet the local media is bleating about a crisis.

The average home price has doubled in the last 10 years, for example $165k in 1999 goes for $330k now. But if that person wants to sell at say $300k the media screams "HOME PRICES FALL 10%" while the seller locks in a huge profit for a few years of investing.

See- they have to convince you things are sooooo baaaaad that you need a president who can tax the crap out of "the rich" (that's anyone who makes over $30k in USA - wage earners in USA over 30k pay 96% of taxes).

So without a crisis you might just realize that the government can't do a damn thing for you except make you poorer or regulate your freedoms with laws about things like what kind of car you can drive. Or which doctor you can see- hell Hillary is even talking about MANDATORY health care, as in, they take your money and sign you up whether you like it or not. A new tax and a new attack on our freedoms.

This scares me a lot more than some stupid idiots buying houses they can't afford. (rubs hands greedily....)

[stipud]

Right, it's all a conspiracy by the liberal zionist media

OR... your area is less affected than others. USA is bigger than Portland. Anecdotal evidence != proof.

[OldSchoolFool]

I wouldn't know, I have never met a Zionist, but usually those are the guys who demand we blow up Iran, right?

I was responding to the original post asking how things are where various people are. I even mentioned the "local" media specifically. So every post, even the negative ones, are simply, as you put it: anecdotal.

I could produce links to unemployment numbers, but those are put out by the government. I could produce the average time to sell graphs for Portland, but well, those are only anecdotal and locally relevant.

If you think the media is responsible, not biased, and not liberal, you have a right to that opinion.

I don't know a single person who is out of a job, worried about paying their mortgage (my interest rates are dropping like mad right now- more and more affordable every day...), or dying from global warming or what ever the latest cause du jour is. Anectodal yes indeed.

Mortgage rates are dropping- FACT. House prices are dropping- FACT. Unemployment holding steady for now at historical lows- FACT.

Hillary wants to enforce mandatory health care-FACT, raise taxes to pay for it- FACT, and in doing so induce British/Canadian style health care where private doctors will be outlawed and you get Public Service announcements about pulling your own teeth if you won't wait 2 years to see a dentist. Those things are actually happening and are really scary to me, not some cooked up idea that private property is the road to ruin.

I know some people like to wrap themselves up in gloom and doom, but the fact is, you have only to look for gloomy news on TV and the paper to do so. Open the door, look outside, and if you live in USA you can change your lot by stepping outside and actually doing something.

[fuzzysnuggleduck]

Hillary wants to enforce mandatory health care-FACT, raise taxes to pay for it- FACT, and in doing so induce British/Canadian style health care where private doctors will be outlawed and you get Public Service announcements about pulling your own teeth if you won't wait 2 years to see a dentist.

This is totally off topic but...

Not that I'm a horn-tooting supporter of the Canadian health care system but your statement of 2 years for us to get a tooth pulled is wrong. I realize the tone of reply was very much set by stipud's post before it so I realize you weren't trying to state that as fact but simply put your own spin on it for effect. However, that statement is incorrect.

Dental offices in Canada are PRIVATE. They are regulated by federal and provincial laws but they are not government offices. Unless you have dental coverage from an employer, any kind of major dental work is, much like America, expensive. If you have the money or have coverage, you can find a dentist to do the work you need very quickly and painlessly.

I think there is general misconception about Medicare and what it really entails. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_ ... are#Canada

Oh, and just to add to the thread, housing prices in metropolitan Canadian areas are only going up, up, up. Or at least that's been the trend for several years now. There is no crisis but the market will eventually have to break once the costs of buying are beyond what the average person can afford.

The information I have suggests that this is a result of insane demand and a strong-ish economy but of course, I'm not realtor asshole.

[OldSchoolFool]

Yes a strong market will drive the cost of housing upward. This is good if you already own. If not you can always buy housing where it is not as expensive- people move where the work is too. That is the market place at work.

As for what I called "British/Canadian" style health care: you are correct again. I stated that there is a 2 year wait to see the dentist.

Apparently this is only in the UK and the wait is only 1.5 years. This quote from a recent BBC article about Brits travelling to Croatia to get their teeth done:
(leave it to an American to figure this out...)
"Eric Jansson, an American living in the UK, is one happy customer.

He recently visited Zagreb on a business trip and decided to fill a gap in his agenda with a visit to the dentist.

He inquired about dentistry services at the local pharmacist and some hours later he already had his teeth cleansed.

"I managed to get an appointment in only two hours. Back home in the north of England there's a half a year waiting list for these kinds of services.

"The dentists I went to in Croatia spoke English, had what seemed as all the latest equipment and they did a very thorough job."

Jansson was so impressed he is now thinking of returning with his wife and children for more treatment.

Link here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/6171393.stm

And yet again you are correct: it is only partially illegal for Canadians to buy private health care. This from a mythbusters article:

"Is private payment for healthcare illegal in Canada?

The argument that Canada and the communist countries of Cuba and North Korea are the only ones in the world to disallow private payment for healthcare originated with a rhetorical piecewritten in the late 1990s, but it has grown to the status of urban myth.vii

It is true that regulations in six of the 10provinces make private insurance illegal for the physician and hospital services covered by provincial insurance plans. (And even in the fourprovinces that do allow this private insurance, little use is made of the provision in practice.)However, every province allows patients to usetheir own money to privately purchase medicallynecessary care, as long as it is delivered by“opted out” private doctors — those who havegiven up their right to get paid from the provin-cial public plan."

Link: http://www.chsrf.ca/mythbusters/pdf/myth18_e.pdf

(emphasis mine) Good catch on those facts. Obviously the governments of the west have a handle on the health problem and are working to make it fair. If it goes anything like the Post Office things should be fine.

As long as they stay out of the housing situation (besides regulating interest rates down in favor of borrowers) we should all have a nice place to live- whether it's from easier borrowing or lower prices.

[stipud]

Okay, I was kidding with you, but it appears that you have put some thought into this... so i'll try to give you a more detailed reply instead.

But before we get too deep, please read through the political megathread a bit. We have already covered many of these issues ad-absurdum. If this thread gets too involved I will have to move it over there as well, so let's try to keep it clean.

I wouldn't know, I have never met a Zionist, but usually those are the guys who demand we blow up Iran, right?

Really? Coulda sworn that was Halliburton... at least that's what my liberal agenda says

I was responding to the original post asking how things are where various people are. I even mentioned the "local" media specifically. So every post, even the negative ones, are simply, as you put it: anecdotal.

I was only disagreeing with your blanket statement "the current "problems" are just media smoke and mirrors- trying to get a socialist-populist elected". I had assumed that your "local media" point, which you made after that initial statement, was anecdotal evidence to back up your smoke and mirrors point. Thus my sarcastic reply.

There is enough evidence, anecdotal or not, to show that the housing market is on a slump. These houses don't foreclose on their own... and it's not the media doing it. If you believe that all of this evidence has been mastermindedly synthesized by the media; I've got a tin foil hat with your name on it.

If you think the media is responsible, not biased, and not liberal, you have a right to that opinion.

I think the media can be anything. It can be right, left, centrist, responsible, irresponsible, biased, you name it. Media just means forms of mass communication. It can be a single person's opinion, or a newscast. Your post, for example, is media.

I think most mass media is flawed, because we as humans are flawed as well. I do not think that all mass media outlets are liberal, but I do think that they are typically biased by design. A news cast that only spouted objective evidence would be pretty useless.

"In today's news.... 1+1=2!"

Mortgage rates are dropping- FACT. House prices are dropping- FACT. Unemployment holding steady for now at historical lows- FACT.

"House prices are dropping- FACT" -- is that not exactly what this "smoke and mirrors" housing crisis is all about? People who bought a house at $250000, expecting to flip it a year later, find that it now only gets them $200000. Oops... now all of a sudden they are losing money that they don't have, because they bought it on a loan that they can't afford to begin with. So all of a sudden they back out, and the bank is left to take the $50000 hit. Pile up enough of these, and they start going out of business.

As Errin and Eric stated, I also believe this is due to stupid homeowners, and stupid banks, expecting to make some quick and dirty money.

Hillary wants to enforce mandatory health care-FACT, raise taxes to pay for it- FACT, and in doing so induce British/Canadian style health care where private doctors will be outlawed and you get Public Service announcements about pulling your own teeth if you won't wait 2 years to see a dentist. Those things are actually happening and are really scary to me, not some cooked up idea that private property is the road to ruin.

I don't see what Hilary or health care has to do with the housing crisis. For starters, she's not your president, and even if she wanted to enact these things, she could only put the policies in motion. There's still congress and the senate to keep things controlled and in the best interests of the people. Every time I hear BUSH or HILLARY , the person is usually assuming these people have some pseudo-dictatorial power, where they can actually enact their principals in one fell swoop.

[OldSchoolFool]

Fair enough.

Housing slump does not equal idiots losing out on bad investments. That's like calling hedge funds the stock market.

If people are able to scoop up these cheaper houses, the market is strong, ie not slumping. If builders build too many new houses and people don't buy them as quickly, is that a slump? Well certainly for the builder and the investors. One man's slump is another man's opportunity. So far the only losers have been, well, losers for the most part.

"These houses don't foreclose on their own... " no it takes an idiot to not read the fine print, when it comes to foreclosures in the context you put them.

When the local media leads every story with the phrase "the economy is soooo bad that (fill in blank)" or some such drivel, yes in fact they are trying to hype the negative- that is how they get ratings. In effect they ARE synthesizing a crisis by confusing concepts like "the economy" with "whether or not you are mortgaged up to your eyeballs because you like plasma tvs and new cars". How they use the hype politically comes down to simple stuff like a picture of Obama smoking and looking stern, contrasted with a picture of Hillary smiling and laughing. They do this stuff every day, every minute, for every story.

I only mention socialist schemes like universal health care, er, uh, mandatory health care, as I stated, to contrast a problem that will truly effect all of us, not just those who are lucky enough to own property and dumb enough to finance it wrong or worry about such nonsense. There's tons of opportunities in these markets, unlike my HC example where all will suffer- which is a real problem.

Note: one problem is hyped by the media, one is downplayed by the media. I always worry when they say "ignore the man behind the curtain..."

[mr tibbs]

I'm glad it's not as bad in the Portland area as it is here. I bet you money I can take you to at least 25 houses within a mile of my home that are currently for sale with at least hale of them being bank repos.

I don't think it was the stupid people that are in trouble here, I think it's people who thought they were smarter than the system and got caught with their hand in the cookie jar. The people that are in trouble are the upper middle class, houses in the $250k-$450k range. Most of these people took out a interest only loan and thought they could sit on the house for 5 years and make a quick buck off of the equity. Then when the market went sour they were screwed. Since the market went bad within the last year or so I think things are only going to get worse before they get better.

[stipud]

If people are able to scoop up these cheaper houses, the market is strong, ie not slumping. If builders build too many new houses and people don't buy them as quickly, is that a slump? Well certainly for the builder and the investors. One man's slump is another man's opportunity. So far the only losers have been, well, losers for the most part.

I agree with you that there is plenty of opportunity now. Hell, Canadian radio is plastered with advertisements to invest in the US real estate market, while it is so cheap. But the path to this opportunity has been paved in failure. When #losers > #winners, we have a crisis.

You blame the builders for making too many houses, yet it was the people who demanded these houses in the first place. These ignorant people purchased these houses, on a loan which they could not afford, hoping to sell it a few years later in order to make a couple bucks after paying off the mortgage. This in turn artificially inflated the housing costs for a brief period, until it reached it's breaking point.

Then, suddenly, the housing prices dropped, and people started abandoning their mortgages because they never could afford them in the first place. So now you have more houses coming up on the market, after the bank had to foreclose on them. This in turn drives the prices even lower, due to simple supply and demand economics. After the costs get driven down further, even more people have to drop their mortgages, and even more houses appear on the market.

This, my friend, is a real housing crisis, exactly like how all the borrowed money in the stock market caused the great depression. I can't comment on how it is being spun by your local media, but calling it "smoke and mirrors" is far off. It is a very real problem affecting many very real people. Many people will carry the financial burden of these poor decisions for the rest of their lives. Financial burdens such as these, and increasing national debt, are signs of a weakening economy. This is why you see the fed lowering interest rates and trying to create new opportunity and market re-investment.

I do not, however, believe that this has been synthetically designed by the puppet masters in the liberal media, just to push Hillary's platform. Big deal, I say, if your local news decides to spin this to support their candidate of choice. If you don't like it, change the channel. You, too, are spinning this housing crisis in order to promote your unrelated argument as well. You took a point about a housing crisis, and turned it into a flame against Hillary and social healthcare. How is that any different than what your local media is doing?

[VW337]

I'm glad it's not as bad in the Portland area as it is here.

Wrong, the market value increase averaged nearly 14% per year in the Portland metro area over the last 5 years, there is an entire community (Same one my contractor is in) that is for sale; building has not been finished on some of these houses because builders tried to keep up with the boom and then the market tanked because as previously stated the borrowers found out they couldn't afford payments and had to move into an apt. and sell their home with no buyers. Builders end up selling at a loss.

Most of these people took out a interest only loan and thought they could sit on the house for 5 years and make a quick buck off of the equity. Then when the market went sour they were screwed.

These quick buck people had the right idea, just too many had the right idea at the same time as rates started falling, property value went up because of the increase in buying, everybody focused on buying, in order to make a buck and didn't focus on their ability to cope if they couldn't turn the home a the right time. Everybody starts selling as the rates go back up because this scares the to-be buyers into locking rates while they are low, now the market is flooded with homes for sale, nobody to buy them, and nobody to afford them because they couldn't sell them before their rates spiked.









To every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. The housing market currently reflects this very well. Everybody buys at once, everybody sells aty once just like a herd of lemmings.

[stipud]

Errin for president 2008

[VW337]

Errin for president 2008

Werd

Potatoe, and other intellectual statements.....I'll run but I doubt I'll get the votes.

[fuzzysnuggleduck]

To every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. The housing market currently reflects this very well. Everybody buys at once, everybody sells aty once just like a herd of lemmings.

I think this sentence neatly and understandably describes a negative side to this story.

Were I am, people are buying like crazy. A new place comes on the market and people just jump all over it, even though it costs them an arm and leg. If those people buying are hoping to turn it over in 5 years for a profit, I wonder how well that will work for them as I don't really see how our current economy is going to cope with housing costs going up even more dramatically than they already have. I think my local housing market is already pushing people's limits and if you buy now as investment, you may end up with a lemon 5 years from now.

Of course, since I don't have any data on this, I'm simply speculating.

Also, while I know and support that there is nothing criminal or legally wrong with buying up personal homes as investments, I see it as somewhat morally controversial. I know there are more factors at work here but I often feel that people who buy houses, wait on them, and then sell for profit are hurting the people who actually want a house to live in and raise a family in.

[stipud]

Were I am, people are buying like crazy. A new place comes on the market and people just jump all over it, even though it costs them an arm and leg. If those people buying are hoping to turn it over in 5 years for a profit, I wonder how well that will work for them as I don't really see how our current economy is going to cope with housing costs going up even more dramatically than they already have. I think my local housing market is already pushing people's limits and if you buy now as investment, you may end up with a lemon 5 years from now.

Thus my only real hesitation about moving to Vancouver...

With the 2010 Olympics on the horizon, prices will only go up until then. In two years, when Wendy and I are finally ready to move, I am not sure I will be able to afford anything out there. Odds are I will then have to rent when I move there, continuously waiting to be able to afford a house, while the prices continue to increase. Thus it will be most likely that I would end up buying around the Olympics, and I'm pretty unsure what will happen to prices after that. Either the infrastructure improvements, brought about by the Olympics, will be enough to keep the market stable, or the prices will drop.

At least the housing market in Europe is pretty stable right now. Once upon a time it used to be really expensive there, but now I can find much nicer houses in Holland for what you pay here. There are also substantial tax breaks for people with mortgages there, so for many people it is beneficial to drag out your mortgage as long as possible, which makes it even less of a financial load. The only downside is of course that Wendy isn't a Dutch citizen, nor is she fluent like I am.

[OldSchoolFool]

"You took a point about a housing crisis, and turned it into a flame against Hillary and social healthcare. How is that any different than what your local media is doing?"

Well for one- I am posting on an opinion related forum. The news has a responsibility to be truthful, or tell you when opinions are included, at least they pretend so, although they have always been scoundrels.

Again I was only pointing out what I see as a real problem- the kind that free people should not have to deal with as contrast to the hype about real estate- a problem which free people should be happy to deal with, lest the government get involved. I can change the channel, however in a year or two I may not be able to change doctors.

Portland has a unique market for houses. Most of the buildable land is trapped inside an Urban Growth Boundary. Big builders prefer large scale developments where they can build hundreds of units, be they condos or houses. We just don't have nearly the scale of suburban development that other regions have.

Nevertheless, builders in the rest of the country still have to deal with years of environmental hurdles and regulatory nightmares which make planning these huge projects a long affair, much longer than the housing price bubble/credit bubble.

The net result is builders (ie very rich, powerful, connected types that can swing huge projects) are losing their asses because their unwanted inventories were planned when the projections were thru the roof (greed, rose colored glasses...). Individuals can still sell pre-owned houses at huge profits if they aren't using theirs as a bank.

Any investment is a risk, but we are conditioned to think that all of life's risks are someone else's fault when shit goes down. That's why people are suing the builders and banks today for their own greedy decisions, the McDonald's scalding coffee in the lap of today. The media endorses this attitude.

The vast majority of home owners are not in trouble at all, but then, facts like that tend to go unreported. Save your money, hang on for a couple years, be responsible when you grab that dream and none of this will matter.

[fuzzysnuggleduck]

Again I was only pointing out what I see as a real problem- the kind that free people should not have to deal with as contrast to the hype about real estate- a problem which free people should be happy to deal with, lest the government get involved. I can change the channel, however in a year or two I may not be able to change doctors.

I'm not trying to argue here or take your statements out of context but in Canada we generally don't have a problem with choosing your own doctor, universal health care doesn't necessarily mean you can't choose your own doctor. Of course, I don't know jack about Hillary's specific plans so I have no idea if that includes forcing people to see specific doctors or not.

There have certainly been occasions in Canada where people have gone elsewhere for health care, that's no secret. However, since I can go to any family doctor I want for the majority of my health care needs, I'm satisfied. Most of the news about Canadians going elsewhere is related to speed of delivery on major surgery or for new and advanced treatments not yet certified for the public (or well enough funded) in Canada.

I don't think any system of health care is perfect. I do however think that the ability for citizens to get basic health care regardless of social and/or economic standing is important. I value our commitment to helping everyone, even though there are those who do fall through the cracks, both rich and poor.

[Eric D]

About the only plan Hillary has which we may know jack about is her plan to raise taxes on the middle class. Of course, she will call this a tax increase on the rich so the middle class buys into it blindly. In the end it will just put additional stress on this already shot housing market, while over time lowering the national debt. Wow, I am so excited, I am just itching to get rid of that national debt and turn it all into personal debt!

My only advice to those in the US (and maybe other countries as well), is buy a house as soon as possible, and within your means. I don’t know if my advice is right or wrong, but I am at least basing it on hundreds of years of example. If you wait it out long enough, your home will exceed its current value. It is really just a matter of time. And the longer you wait to get a house, the less ahead you are. This is especially true of renting where you are just filling someone else’s pocket instead of your savings.

The only regret I have buying my house is I did not do it sooner. I have only been there a year and a half and I have about 25% paid off. If I bought it sooner, I would be further ahead. I still have the thought of debt hanging over my head, but at least I am getting somewhere paying it off, and hope to be debt free prior to having children.